Jon Arnold: Has VoIP Peaked?

Jon Arnold has an interesting post today: Has VoIP Peaked? 8 Reasons Why I Think So

It's hard to argue against him in the consumer space. At this point consumer VOIP remains broken up along two lines. Those like Vonage who are attacking the traditional telephone space head-on and are struggling. And the niche-space with those like Skype and Gizmo who are offering a service that complements rather than seeks to replace the POTS.

The first class has built its value proposition on reducing telephone bills, and as such is highly vulnerable to new bundled service offerings from the cable/telco providers. Why should I stick with Vonage for $24.99 per month when I can get triple play from my cable company including voice, television, and Internet for $100 a month? It's hard to see how these providers have much of a future.

The alternative services provide something different, they bundle mobility, instant messaging, video, and presence into their services and as such are ideal for the mobile or traveling professional. They also offer significant cost savings for international calls and are extremely attractive to geographically dispersed families.

Still, at this point I wonder why this gap still exists. Why can't I get a service from a Comcast, AT&T, or Verizon that merges my home phone with a Skype-like service, so I can integrate presence as I can now do in most enterprise offerings. Tello tried to build out that kind of service and failed. Perhaps we overestimate the attractiveness of things like presence on the desktop in the consumer space, especially given that most individuals prefer their mobile phone to all other means of communication. Perhaps initiatives such as Iotum's "Talk-Now" which brings presence to the mobile user (though right now just for Blackberry) is where the real excitement will occur moving forward.

Of course the enterprise space is a completely different story. VOIP in the enterprise is heading for a massive upswing based on our research and that of others, and the opportunities to integrate voice and other real-time communications with collaboration and business process applications is generating a great deal of interest.